Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

Water is an essential natural resource that being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate scenarios and evaluate impact balance in southern Brazil. Daily data rainfall air temperature (maximum minimum) were used. The meteorological collected 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For simulation, we used stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two fifth report Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) a scenario with historical trend. estimates performed for current simulated data, through methodology Thornthwaite Mather (1955). moisture indexes spatialized kriging method. These chosen as parameters represent different situations. region assessed presented high variability among locations; however, it did not present deficiency values, even Overall, observed reduction index most sites all assessed, especially northern when compared other regions. second IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions dry 2099 year. impacts change availability, identified study, can affect general society, therefore, they must be planning management resources, regional context